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Property Crime Trends in Durant, Oklahoma: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Durant, located in Oklahoma, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside considerable population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 27% from 785 to 573 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 22.6%, growing from 20,141 to 24,690 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 253 burglaries, which decreased to 100 in 2022, representing a 60.5% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 12.56 in 2010 to 4.05 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 1.01% in 2013 before declining to 0.63% in 2022. This significant decrease in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased over time, though less dramatically than burglaries. In 2010, there were 502 larceny-thefts, which decreased to 410 in 2022, a reduction of 18.3%. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 24.92 in 2010 to 16.61 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.72% in 2010 to 0.78% in 2022, indicating that while local incidents decreased, they did so at a slower rate than the state average. This trend suggests that while overall larceny-theft has improved, it remains a persistent issue relative to state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft showed a different pattern, increasing from 30 incidents in 2010 to 63 in 2022, a 110% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.49 in 2010 to 2.55 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 0.34% to 0.61% over this period. This upward trend in motor vehicle thefts contrasts with the decreases seen in other property crime categories, potentially indicating a shift in criminal focus or increased opportunities for this type of crime.
Arson incidents have remained relatively low but variable. The number of arsons ranged from 0 to 4 per year, with 4 incidents reported in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained below 0.2 throughout the period. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated considerably, reaching a high of 0.82% in 2022. While the numbers are small, the variability and recent increase in the state share suggest that arson remains a concern that warrants attention.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in overall property crime rates coincides with an increase in median income, which rose from $43,262 in 2013 to $47,252 in 2022. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership from 51% in 2013 to 54% in 2022 correlates with the overall decrease in property crime, potentially indicating that higher property ownership rates contribute to community stability and reduced crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends suggests that by 2029, five years from now, the city may see a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trends, potentially reaching rates of 3.5 and 15 per 1,000 residents, respectively. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to pose a challenge, with rates potentially increasing to 3 per 1,000 residents if current trends persist.
In summary, Durant has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. While burglary and larceny-theft have shown encouraging decreases, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a new challenge. The correlation between rising incomes, homeownership, and decreasing property crime rates suggests that continued economic development and community investment could further improve safety outcomes. As the city continues to grow, maintaining focus on these trends and adapting strategies accordingly will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and security of its residents.
