Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Duquesne: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Duquesne, located in Pennsylvania, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the city experienced a significant decline in total property crimes, dropping from 314 incidents in 2010 to 163 in 2018, representing a 48.1% decrease. This substantial reduction occurred against a backdrop of gradual population decline, with the city's population decreasing from 5,826 in 2010 to 5,241 in 2022, a 10% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city showed a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 124 burglaries, which decreased to 48 by 2018, marking a 61.3% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 21.3 in 2010 to 8.7 in 2018. Interestingly, despite this decrease in raw numbers, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.64% in 2015 and 2016 before declining to 0.36% in 2018. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, the rate of improvement may have been slower than the state average in some years.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a significant decrease over the observed period. In 2010, there were 164 reported cases, which dropped to 95 in 2018, a 42.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 28.1 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.2% throughout most of the period, with a slight decrease to 0.15% in 2018. This indicates that the city's efforts in reducing larceny-theft were largely in line with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While the number of incidents decreased from 26 in 2010 to 20 in 2018, a 23.1% reduction, the rate per 1,000 residents only marginally decreased from 4.5 to 3.6. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.24% in 2010 to 0.32% in 2017, before returning to 0.24% in 2018. This suggests that while the city made some progress, it faced persistent challenges in this area relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city showed a dramatic decrease, from 21 incidents in 2010 to just 1 in 2018, a 95.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.6 to 0.18. However, the city's contribution to state arson figures fluctuated significantly, peaking at 3.47% in 2010 and dropping to 0.12% by 2018. This substantial improvement indicates targeted and effective measures against arson in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $20,681 in 2013 to $32,694 in 2022, property crime rates generally declined. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the proportion of white residents increased from 29% in 2018 to 38% in 2022, and the proportion of black residents decreased from 56% to 44% over the same period, property crime rates continued their downward trend.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Duquesne could see further reductions in property crime rates. Burglary rates might decrease to around 5-6 per 1,000 residents, larceny-theft could potentially drop to 12-14 per 1,000, and motor vehicle theft might stabilize at around 3 per 1,000. Arson cases are expected to remain very low, possibly under 1 per year.
In conclusion, Duquesne has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories from 2010 to 2018. The most dramatic improvements were seen in burglary and arson rates, while larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft also showed positive trends. These improvements, coupled with demographic and economic changes, suggest a city undergoing positive transformation. If current trends continue, Duquesne is poised to maintain its progress in creating a safer community for its residents in the coming years.
