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Property Crime Trends in Dunlap, Tennessee: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Dunlap, located in Tennessee, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade, coinciding with notable population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 45.4% from 183 to 100 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 17.3%, from 7,720 to 9,053 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 62 burglaries, which dropped to 11 in 2022, representing a 82.3% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.03 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.22 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.14% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or increased community vigilance.
Larceny-theft trends have been more variable but also show an overall decline. The number of incidents decreased from 109 in 2010 to 69 in 2022, a 36.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 14.12 in 2010 to 7.62 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022. This consistent share of state incidents, despite the local decrease, may indicate that the city is following broader state trends in larceny-theft reduction.
Motor vehicle theft has shown a concerning upward trend. The number of incidents increased from 12 in 2010 to 20 in 2022, a 66.7% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 1.55 in 2010 to 2.21 in 2022. More notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.11% to 0.11% during this period. This trend suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a more pressing issue for the community, potentially requiring targeted prevention strategies.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and low in number. The city reported 1 case in 2010 and 0 in 2022. The highest number of arsons reported was 2 in 2016 and 2017. Given the low frequency, it's difficult to establish a clear trend, but the data suggests that arson is not a major concern for the community.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in overall property crime rates coincides with an increase in median income, which rose from $38,952 in 2013 to $45,120 in 2022. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower property crime rates. Additionally, the city has maintained a relatively stable homeownership rate, ranging between 68% and 71% throughout the period, which may contribute to community stability and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crime rates. Based on the current trends, we can expect burglaries and larceny-thefts to continue decreasing, potentially reaching historic lows. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise if current trends persist, potentially becoming a more significant concern for law enforcement and residents.
In summary, Dunlap has shown remarkable progress in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts, despite population growth. The rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require focused attention. These trends, coupled with improving economic indicators, suggest a generally positive outlook for public safety in the city. However, continued vigilance and adaptive strategies will be crucial to maintain and improve upon these gains in the coming years.
