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Property Crime Trends in Due West: A Small Town's Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
DATA SOURCE
United States Census Bureau: American Community Survey Data (ACS)
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI): Offenses Known to Law Enforcement by State by City
Due West, located in South Carolina, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 5 incidents in 2010 to 25 in 2020, followed by a sharp decline to 3 in 2022. This represents a 40% decrease in property crimes over the 12-year period. Concurrently, the population experienced modest growth, rising from 3,117 in 2010 to 3,035 in 2022, a 2.6% decrease overall.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variability. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which decreased to 1 in 2013 and 2016. However, a spike occurred in 2017 with 6 burglaries, before dropping again to 1 in 2018. By 2022, burglaries had reduced to zero. When accounting for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 2.07 in 2017 and fell to 0 by 2022. The city's contribution to state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.06% in 2017 before dropping to 0% in 2022. This trend suggests improved home security measures or increased law enforcement effectiveness in recent years.
Larceny-theft has been the most prevalent property crime in Due West. From 3 incidents in 2010, it rose to a high of 25 in 2016, before decreasing to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 9 in 2016 and declined to 0.99 by 2022. The city's share of state larceny-thefts reached 0.05% in 2016 and 2020 but fell to 0.01% in 2022. This trend indicates a significant improvement in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting in recent years, possibly due to enhanced community vigilance or improved retail security.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low. There were no reported incidents in 2010, 2015, 2016, 2019, and 2022. The highest number was recorded in 2017 with 2 thefts. The rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.69 (in 2017). The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts peaked at 0.04% in 2017 but was 0% for several years, including 2022. This suggests that vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the community, possibly due to effective deterrence measures or the city's characteristics.
Arson incidents have been consistently reported as zero from 2010 to 2022, indicating that this particular crime is not a significant issue for Due West. The absence of arson cases could be attributed to effective fire safety measures, community awareness, or the overall safety profile of the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $47,720 in 2013 to $52,804 in 2019, property crimes generally decreased. However, this trend is not consistent throughout, as evidenced by the spike in property crimes in 2020 despite a decrease in median income. Population density shows a weak positive correlation with property crime rates, with both generally increasing from 2013 to 2020 before declining in 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued decrease in overall property crimes. By 2029, which is five years from now, we project that Due West may experience an average of 1-2 property crimes per year, primarily consisting of larceny-theft incidents. Burglaries and motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain at or near zero, while arson cases are predicted to continue their absence.
In conclusion, Due West has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The significant reduction in larceny-theft, coupled with the virtual elimination of burglaries and motor vehicle thefts in recent years, points to a safer community environment. These trends, if sustained, suggest that the city is on a path to becoming one of the safest small towns in South Carolina with respect to property crimes.
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