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Property Crime Trends in Duck, NC: A Coastal Community's Remarkable Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Duck, North Carolina, a small coastal community, has experienced a significant transformation in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically from 81 to 20, representing a 75.3% reduction. This decline occurred despite a population growth from 753 to 1,035, a 37.5% increase, creating an intriguing dynamic between crime rates and population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 52 burglaries, which dropped to just 3 in 2022, marking a 94.2% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 69.1 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.9 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or community policing efforts in the area.
Larceny-theft incidents have fluctuated but generally trended downward. From 29 cases in 2010, the number decreased to 16 in 2022, a 44.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 38.5 in 2010 to 15.5 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.01% to 0.02% throughout the period. This trend indicates a consistent improvement in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting incidents.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been sporadic and low. There were no reported cases in most years, with only one incident each reported in 2013, 2015, and 2022. This translates to a rate of less than 1 per 1,000 people in those years. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained at or close to 0% throughout the period, suggesting that this type of crime is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson cases have been non-existent in Duck throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, with no reported incidents. This consistently zero rate per 1,000 people and 0% contribution to state arson cases indicates that arson is not a prevalent issue in the community.
A strong correlation exists between the decline in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $75,949 in 2013 to $102,906 in 2022, property crimes decreased. Additionally, there's a positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing units and reduced crime rates. The ownership rate increased from 84% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's projected that by 2029, Duck may see a further reduction in property crimes to approximately 10-15 incidents annually. This prediction assumes the continuation of current trends in population growth, income levels, and homeownership rates.
In summary, Duck has experienced a remarkable decrease in property crimes despite significant population growth over the past decade. The most substantial improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft and arson remain minimal concerns. The correlation between rising income levels, increased homeownership, and declining crime rates suggests a strengthening community fabric. These trends paint a picture of a growing, prosperous town that has successfully managed to enhance public safety alongside its economic development.
