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Property Crime Trends in Dubuque: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Dubuque, Iowa, a picturesque city nestled along the Mississippi River, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 40.6%, from 1,771 to 1,052 incidents. This significant reduction occurred against a backdrop of population growth, with the city's population increasing by 4.2% from 65,047 in 2010 to 67,773 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 463 burglaries reported, which decreased to 224 by 2022, representing a 51.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 7.12 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.31 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decline, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 3.64% in 2010 to 4.51% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of Iowa.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 1,257 in 2010 to 765 in 2022, a 39.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 19.32 in 2010 to 11.29 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, moving from 3.09% in 2010 to 3.15% in 2022, indicating that the decline in larceny-theft was somewhat consistent with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed more variability but ultimately increased over the period. In 2010, there were 51 reported incidents, which rose to 63 in 2022, a 23.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.78 in 2010 to 0.93 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose from 1.69% to 1.90%, suggesting that this type of crime increased more rapidly in the city compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. From 24 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 6 in 2022, a 75% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.37 in 2010 to 0.09 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases decreased from 6.09% to 3.21%, indicating that arson reduction in the city outpaced the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 2,082 per square mile in 2010 to 2,169 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. Additionally, there appears to be a negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $53,771 in 2013 to $65,437 in 2022, property crime incidents generally declined, indicating that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are projected to decrease by approximately 15-20%, while larceny-theft may see a reduction of 10-15%. Motor vehicle theft rates are expected to stabilize or slightly decrease by 5-10%. Arson cases are predicted to remain low, potentially decreasing by another 10-15%.
In summary, Dubuque has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglary, larceny-theft, and arson. The city's efforts in crime prevention, coupled with economic growth and demographic changes, appear to have contributed to this positive trend. While motor vehicle theft remains a concern, the overall outlook for property crime in Dubuque is optimistic, with continued improvements expected in the coming years.
