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Property Crime Trends in DuBois, Pennsylvania: A Study of Declining Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
DuBois, located in Pennsylvania, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape over recent years. The total number of property crimes decreased from 136 in 2018 to 114 in 2020, representing a 16.2% reduction. During this same period, the city's population declined slightly from 7,569 in 2018 to 7,522.5 in 2020, a decrease of 0.6%.
Burglary rates in the city showed a significant decline. In 2018, there were 14 burglaries, which dropped to just 3 in 2020, marking a 78.6% decrease. When adjusted for population, this translates to a reduction from 1.85 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2018 to 0.40 per 1,000 in 2020. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.11% in 2018 to 1.51% in 2020. This suggests that while local efforts may have been effective in reducing burglaries, the city's relative contribution to state burglary statistics increased.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in DuBois, also saw a decline. The number of incidents dropped from 119 in 2018 to 107 in 2020, a 10.1% decrease. In terms of population-adjusted rates, this represents a change from 15.72 incidents per 1,000 residents in 2018 to 14.22 per 1,000 in 2020. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased dramatically from 0.18% to 14.27% during this period, indicating a significant shift in the city's contribution to state-wide larceny-theft statistics.
Motor vehicle theft showed a slight increase, from 3 incidents in 2018 to 4 in 2020, representing a 33.3% rise. When adjusted for population, this translates to an increase from 0.40 thefts per 1,000 residents to 0.53 per 1,000. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased substantially, from 0.04% to 2.82%, suggesting that while the absolute number of thefts remained low, the city's relative contribution to state statistics grew significantly.
Arson cases in the city decreased from 1 incident in 2018 to 0 in 2020. This change resulted in a drop from 0.13 arsons per 1,000 residents to 0. The city's share of state arson cases also decreased from 0.12% to 0%.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's median income increased from $45,408 in 2018 to $44,955.5 in 2020, while the percent of owner-occupied housing rose from 57% to 58%. These modest improvements in economic indicators coincide with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential link between economic stability and reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend in property crimes. Based on the observed patterns, we can expect burglaries to remain low, potentially stabilizing around 2-3 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is likely to continue its gradual decline, possibly reaching around 95-100 incidents annually by 2029. Motor vehicle theft may fluctuate but is expected to remain in the low single digits. Arson cases are projected to remain rare, with zero to one incident per year.
In summary, DuBois has experienced a generally positive trend in property crime reduction from 2018 to 2020, with significant decreases in burglaries and larceny-theft. The city's share of state crime statistics has increased for some categories, which may warrant further investigation. The correlation between improving economic indicators and declining crime rates suggests that continued focus on economic development could contribute to maintaining or further reducing property crime levels in the coming years.
