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Property Crime Trends in Dublin, Texas: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Dublin, located in Texas, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside changes in its population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 58 to 17, representing a 70.69% reduction. During this same period, the city's population grew from 4,876 to 4,786, a slight decrease of 1.85%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 21 burglaries reported, which decreased to 13 in 2022, representing a 38.10% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.31 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.72 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny theft incidents have seen a dramatic decrease over the years. From 36 cases in 2010, the number dropped to just 2 in 2022, a remarkable 94.44% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 7.38 in 2010 to 0.42 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft cases remained consistently low, at 0.01% in 2010 and dropping to 0% by 2022, indicating that larceny theft in the city decreased more rapidly than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively stable at low levels. There was 1 case reported in 2010, and this number remained the same in 2022, with some fluctuations in between. The rate per 1,000 people stayed consistently low, at 0.21 in both 2010 and 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained at 0% throughout the period, suggesting that these crimes were not a significant issue relative to state figures.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. There were no reported cases in 2010 and 2022, with occasional incidents in between. The highest number recorded was 2 cases in 2011, representing 0.05% of state arson cases that year. The rate per 1,000 people for arson remained at 0 for most years, peaking at 0.40 per 1,000 in 2011.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $41,150 in 2013 to $57,748 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 75 to 17. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the increase in homeownership rates and the decrease in property crimes. The percentage of owner-occupied homes rose from 66% in 2013 to 80% in 2022, coinciding with the decline in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in Dublin are likely to stabilize at low levels. Total property crimes could potentially decrease further to around 10-12 incidents per year, with burglaries potentially dropping to 5-7 cases annually, and larceny theft remaining in the low single digits.
In summary, Dublin has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with particularly notable decreases in burglary and larceny theft. This positive trend coincides with increases in median income and homeownership rates, suggesting improved economic conditions may be contributing to lower crime rates. The city's property crime rates have generally improved more rapidly than state averages, positioning Dublin as a community with enhancing safety and quality of life metrics.
