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Property Crime Trends in Dublin, Texas: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Dublin, Texas, a small urban center with a population of 4,786 in 2022, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically by 70.69%, from 58 to 17 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a modest population decrease of 1.85% during the same period, from 4,876 to 4,786 residents.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a notable downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 21 burglaries reported, which peaked at 52 in 2012 before declining to 13 in 2022, representing a 38.10% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 4.31 in 2010 to 2.72 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide burglary statistics has remained relatively consistent, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.03% of the state's total, indicating that the local trend generally aligns with broader state patterns.
Larceny theft cases have seen an even more dramatic decline. From 36 incidents in 2010, the number peaked at 98 in 2011 before plummeting to just 2 cases in 2022, marking a 94.44% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 7.38 in 2010 to 0.42 in 2022. The city's share of state-wide larceny theft has remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.02% and dropping to 0.00% in recent years, suggesting that the local reduction outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the period. From a single incident in 2010, it reached a high of 6 in 2011 before returning to 2 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.21 in 2010 to 0.42 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft statistics has been minimal, consistently at or below 0.01% of the state's total.
Arson cases in the city have been infrequent, with a maximum of 2 incidents reported in 2011. Since 2019, no arson cases have been reported. The city's contribution to state-wide arson statistics has been negligible, peaking at 0.06% in 2018 and remaining at 0.00% in recent years.
A notable correlation exists between the decline in property crimes and the increase in median income and home ownership rates. From 2013 to 2022, the median income rose from $41,150 to $57,747, an increase of 40.33%. During the same period, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 66% to 80%. This suggests that as economic conditions improved and more residents became homeowners, property crime rates decreased significantly.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that the city will continue to experience low property crime rates. The model suggests that total property crimes may stabilize around 15-20 incidents annually, with burglaries potentially decreasing further to an average of 8-10 cases per year. Larceny theft is expected to remain in the single digits, while motor vehicle theft may fluctuate between 1-3 incidents annually. Arson cases are projected to remain at or near zero.
In summary, Dublin has made remarkable progress in reducing property crime rates over the past decade. The significant decreases in burglary and larceny theft, coupled with consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a community that has become safer and more economically stable. The strong correlation between rising incomes, increased home ownership, and declining crime rates suggests that economic development and community investment have played crucial roles in enhancing public safety. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will be key to ensuring a continued high quality of life for its residents.
