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Property Crime Trends in Duarte: A Decade of Decreasing Incidents Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Duarte, located in California, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, showing an overall decrease of 15.7% from 440 to 371 incidents. During this same period, the population grew slightly by 1.4%, from 21,380 to 21,686 residents.
The burglary rate in the city showed a significant downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 115 burglaries, which decreased to 67 in 2022, representing a 41.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.38 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.09 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.04% and 0.06% throughout the period. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it maintained a consistent proportion of the state's burglary incidents.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a slight decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 249 incidents, which reduced to 233 in 2022, a 6.4% decrease. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people also decreased from 11.65 in 2010 to 10.74 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively constant, hovering around 0.04% to 0.05%, indicating that the city's larceny-theft trends largely mirrored those of the state.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed some fluctuation but ultimately decreased slightly. There were 76 incidents in 2010, which reduced to 71 in 2022, a 6.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.55 in 2010 to 3.27 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable between 0.03% and 0.06%, suggesting that the city's trends in this crime category generally aligned with state trends.
Arson incidents in the city were relatively low and showed significant fluctuation. In 2010, there were 2 reported arsons, which decreased to 0 in several years, including 2020. The city's share of state arsons varied between 0% and 0.05%, indicating that arson was not a significant issue in the city compared to other property crimes.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $72,367 in 2013 to $84,415 in 2022, the overall property crime rate decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a slight correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and property crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 44% in 2013 to 50% in 2022, property crime rates showed some fluctuation but an overall decrease.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 3 per 1,000 people, while larceny-theft may continue to decrease gradually to around 10 per 1,000 people. Motor vehicle theft rates are predicted to remain relatively stable at about 3 per 1,000 people.
In summary, Duarte has shown a general improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglary rates and slight reductions in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft. The city's share of state property crimes has remained relatively consistent, suggesting that its crime trends largely mirror those of California as a whole. The inverse relationship between rising median income and decreasing crime rates indicates that economic improvements may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
