Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Du Quoin, Illinois: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Du Quoin, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly by 76.9%, from 117 to 27 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred against a backdrop of a slight population decline of 3.8%, from 8,327 in 2010 to 8,008 in 2019.
Burglary rates in the city showed a noteworthy downward trend. In 2010, there were 19 burglaries, which decreased to just 4 in 2019, representing a 78.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.28 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.50 per 1,000 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years but generally remained low, ranging from 0.02% to 0.07% of the state total. This significant decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft incidents also experienced a substantial decline. In 2010, there were 94 reported cases, which dropped to 16 in 2019, marking an 83% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 11.29 in 2010 to 2.00 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2019, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average. This trend might reflect enhanced community vigilance or successful crime prevention programs.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. From 4 incidents in 2010, the number increased to 7 in 2019, despite fluctuations in between. The rate per 1,000 residents rose slightly from 0.48 in 2010 to 0.87 in 2019. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% to 0.05% over this period, suggesting that while the absolute numbers remained low, the city experienced a relative increase compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city were rare, with only sporadic incidents reported. The highest number was 2 cases in 2013, representing 0.17% of state arsons that year. Given the low frequency, it's difficult to establish a meaningful trend, but the data suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the declining property crime rates and the city's demographic changes. As the population density decreased from 1,193 per square mile in 2010 to 1,147 in 2019, property crimes also fell. Additionally, the median income increased from $40,873 in 2013 to $47,206 in 2019, which could have contributed to the reduction in property crimes. The percentage of owner-occupied housing units rose slightly from 69% in 2013 to 73% in 2019, potentially indicating greater community stability and investment in the area.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, five years from now), we can anticipate a continuation of the overall downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. The model suggests that by 2029, total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 20-25% from 2019 levels, assuming current socioeconomic trends persist.
In summary, Du Quoin has experienced a remarkable reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend, coupled with demographic shifts and economic improvements, paints a picture of a community that has made significant strides in enhancing public safety. The forecast suggests a continued, though more modest, improvement in property crime rates, positioning the city as an increasingly secure environment for its residents.
