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Property Crime Trends in Dry Ridge, Kentucky: Larceny-Theft on the Rise
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Dry Ridge, located in Kentucky, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased from 7 to 18, representing a 157% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 5,273 to 5,620, a 6.6% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have been inconsistent. The number of burglaries peaked at 6 in 2011 but dropped to zero in 2012, 2021, and 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, reaching a high of 1.12 per 1,000 in 2011 and falling to 0 in recent years. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics has also varied, ranging from 0% to 0.05% of state totals. This erratic pattern suggests that while burglary is not a persistent issue, it has been sporadic and unpredictable.
Larceny-theft has been the most prevalent property crime in the city. The number of larceny-thefts increased from 4 in 2010 to 16 in 2022, a 300% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.76 in 2010 to 2.85 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating a growing share of the state's larceny-theft incidents. This trend suggests that petty theft has become a more significant concern for local law enforcement.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an overall increase, though with considerable year-to-year variation. The number of motor vehicle thefts rose from 2 in 2010 to 2 in 2022, with a peak of 8 in 2017 and 2020. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, reaching a high of 1.35 per 1,000 in 2017. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics has been volatile, ranging from 0.02% to 0.18%. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft is not consistently high, it has occasional spikes that significantly impact the city's crime statistics.
Arson incidents have been rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2016. This single incident represented 0.55% of the state's arson cases that year. The absence of arson in other years indicates that it is not a persistent problem for the community.
There appears to be a correlation between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,044 per square mile in 2010 to 1,113 in 2022, property crimes also showed an overall upward trend. However, the relationship is not consistent year-over-year, suggesting other factors may influence crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the primary concern, with projections suggesting it may account for 75-80% of all property crimes. Motor vehicle theft may continue to fluctuate but is not expected to exceed 5 incidents per year. Burglary rates are predicted to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents annually.
In summary, Dry Ridge has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, primarily driven by larceny-theft. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has grown, particularly in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft categories. While burglary and arson remain relatively rare, the community faces ongoing challenges with petty theft. As the city continues to grow, local law enforcement may need to adapt strategies to address the evolving property crime landscape, with a particular focus on preventing larceny-theft incidents.
