Motor vehicle theft trends remained relatively stable, with slight fluctuations. There were 5 incidents in 2010 and 6 in 2022, a 20% increase. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased marginally from 0.31 to 0.37. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained constant at 0.03%, indicating that this crime type followed state trends closely.

Arson cases in the city were infrequent, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number recorded was 4 cases in 2015, representing 0.25% of state arsons that year. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to establish a meaningful trend, but it's clear that arson is not a prevalent issue in the community.

Examining correlations between property crime and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $54,988 in 2013 to $64,204 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

Population density shows a weak positive correlation with property crime. For instance, in 2017, when population density peaked at 2,782 per square mile, property crime also saw a spike to 122 incidents. However, this relationship is not consistent across all years, indicating that other factors likely play a more significant role in crime rates.

Ownership percentages show a moderate negative correlation with property crime rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied housing decreased from 73% in 2013 to 65% in 2022, there was a general trend of decreasing property crime, contrary to what might be expected. This suggests that other factors, such as community policing or economic conditions, may have a stronger influence on crime rates than home ownership in this particular city.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city could see total property crimes fall below 50 incidents per year, with larceny theft likely remaining the most common type but potentially dropping to around 35 cases annually.

In summary, Dover has demonstrated a commendable reduction in property crime over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The most significant improvements have been in burglary and larceny theft rates, while motor vehicle theft and arson have remained relatively stable at low levels. The inverse relationship between rising median incomes and falling crime rates suggests that economic development may be a key factor in maintaining this positive trend. As the city moves forward, continued focus on economic growth and community-based crime prevention strategies could help sustain and potentially improve upon these encouraging property crime statistics.