Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a less dramatic but still positive trend. The number of incidents decreased from 22 in 2010 to 10 in 2020, a 54.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.21 to 0.55 over the same period. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.22% in 2010, peaking at 0.36% in 2015, and then decreasing to 0.18% by 2020. This suggests that while improvements were made, they were not as consistent as in other property crime categories.

Arson incidents were rare in the city, with no reported cases from 2010 to 2017. However, there was a notable increase in 2018 and 2019, with one case each year, representing 0.54% and 0.56% of state arson incidents, respectively. In 2020, there was a spike to 3 cases, accounting for 1.96% of state arsons. While the numbers are small, this sudden increase warrants attention from local law enforcement.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The steady decrease in property crimes coincided with a gradual increase in median income, rising from $79,700 in 2013 to $90,750 in 2020. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the Hispanic population, which makes up the majority of the city's residents, remained relatively stable at around 68-70% during this period, indicating that demographic stability might have played a role in the crime reduction trends.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city could see further reductions in property crimes. Burglaries and larceny-thefts are likely to continue their downward trajectory, potentially reaching historic lows. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize or show modest decreases. However, the recent uptick in arson cases suggests that this category could remain a point of concern, potentially requiring targeted prevention strategies.

In conclusion, Dover has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, outpacing state averages in several categories. The correlation between rising median incomes and falling crime rates suggests that continued economic development could further enhance public safety. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging challenges like the recent increase in arson cases will be crucial for ensuring the continued well-being of its diverse community.