Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Dodge City, Kansas: A Decade of Change in the Historic Frontier Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Dodge City, Kansas, a historic frontier town known for its Wild West heritage, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased by 49.4%, from 883 to 447 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a modest population growth of 4.4%, from 27,234 to 28,422 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic decline over the years. In 2010, there were 141 burglaries, which dropped to 55 in 2022, representing a 61% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.18 to 1.93 per 1,000 residents. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. In 2010, it accounted for 0.95% of state burglaries, peaking at 2.4% in 2020, before dropping to 0.9% in 2022. This trend suggests that while the city has made significant progress in reducing burglaries, its improvements have not always outpaced those of the state as a whole.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial reduction. The number of incidents decreased from 682 in 2010 to 351 in 2022, a 48.5% drop. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 25.04 to 12.35. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, ranging from 1.28% in 2010 to 1.01% in 2022, with a peak of 3.37% in 2020. This indicates that the city's efforts to combat larceny-theft have generally been in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more modest decline, from 60 incidents in 2010 to 41 in 2022, a 31.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 2.20 to 1.44. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 1.17% in 2010, dropping to 0.51% in 2015, and then rising to 0.79% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress, its improvements in this area have not been as pronounced as in other property crime categories.
Arson cases in the city have shown significant volatility. The number of incidents increased from 2 in 2010 to 12 in 2022, a 500% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.07 to 0.42. More strikingly, the city's contribution to state arson cases increased dramatically, from 0.45% in 2010 to 4.2% in 2022. This trend is concerning and suggests that arson has become a more significant issue in the city relative to the rest of the state.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $55,170 in 2013 to $58,892 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and property crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 57% in 2013 to 63% in 2022, property crime rates showed some fluctuations but generally decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes. However, the rate of decline is expected to slow. Burglary and larceny-theft are projected to continue decreasing, albeit at a slower pace. Motor vehicle theft rates may stabilize or show slight increases. The most concerning projection is for arson cases, which are expected to continue their upward trend unless significant interventions are implemented.
In summary, Dodge City has made substantial progress in reducing overall property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the increasing trend in arson cases and the slower decline in motor vehicle thefts present ongoing challenges. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to have some influence on crime rates, suggesting that continued focus on economic development and community engagement could play a role in further crime reduction efforts.
