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Property Crime Trends in Diboll: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Diboll, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased significantly from 114 to 31, representing a 72.8% reduction. During this same period, the population experienced modest growth, increasing from 7,272 in 2010 to 7,527 in 2022, a 3.5% rise.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 29 burglaries, which dropped to just 8 in 2022, marking a 72.4% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.99 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.06 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.02% in 2010 and 0.01% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or community policing efforts may have been effective in deterring this type of crime.
Larceny-theft cases also experienced a dramatic decline. From 84 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 18 in 2022, representing a 78.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 11.55 in 2010 to 2.39 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.00% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state-wide trend. This substantial decrease in larceny-theft could be attributed to increased community awareness or improved retail security measures.
Motor vehicle theft showed more fluctuation but ultimately decreased. From 1 incident in 2010, it peaked at 7 in 2011, then settled at 5 in 2022. Despite this slight increase in raw numbers, the rate per 1,000 residents only marginally changed from 0.14 in 2010 to 0.66 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, ranging from 0.00% to 0.01% throughout the period. This relatively stable trend suggests that while motor vehicle theft hasn't seen the same dramatic reductions as other property crimes, it remains a minor concern in the city.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and rare. There were no reported arsons in most years, with only one incident each reported in 2011 and 2012. The city's contribution to state arson figures was negligible, never exceeding 0.03%. The absence of a consistent arson problem indicates that this is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,461 per square mile in 2010 to 1,512 in 2022, property crimes decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to more crime. There appears to be a negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $40,031 in 2019 to $52,917 in 2022, property crimes continued to decline, indicating that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on the historical data, we can project that total property crimes could potentially decrease to around 20-25 incidents per year by 2029. Burglaries might stabilize at 5-7 cases annually, while larceny-theft could further reduce to 10-15 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low, potentially averaging 2-4 cases annually.
In summary, Diboll has experienced a remarkable reduction in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The most significant decreases were seen in burglaries and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson remained relatively low throughout the period. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and stable population growth, paint a picture of a community that has made substantial progress in improving public safety and quality of life for its residents.
