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Property Crime Trends in Delaware, Ohio: A Decade of Significant Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Delaware, Ohio, nestled in the heart of the state, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically by 55%, dropping from 915 to 412 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred against the backdrop of a growing population, which increased by 23.4% from 44,278 in 2010 to 54,651 in 2022, highlighting a notable improvement in public safety despite urban expansion.
The trend in burglary cases shows a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 201 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 27 cases in 2022, representing an 86.6% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.54 in 2010 to 0.49 in 2022, a significant improvement in residential security. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.48% in 2015 before dropping to 0.13% in 2022, indicating that the city's burglary reduction outpaced the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime, also saw a substantial decrease. In 2010, 691 cases were reported, compared to 369 in 2022, a 46.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 15.61 to 6.75 over the same period. However, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.45% in 2010 to 0.36% in 2022, suggesting that while improvements were made, they were somewhat in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated but ultimately decreased from 23 cases in 2010 to 16 in 2022, a 30.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.52 to 0.29. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied considerably, peaking at 0.33% in 2012 before falling to 0.07% in 2022, indicating that the city became relatively safer for vehicle owners compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city showed volatility over the years. From 8 cases in 2010, it peaked at 11 cases in 2013, 2017, and 2020, before settling at 5 cases in 2022. Despite the fluctuations, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.18 to 0.09. The city's share of state arson cases varied dramatically, reaching a high of 1.69% in 2020 before dropping to 0.58% in 2022, suggesting that arson remains a concern requiring vigilance.
A strong correlation emerges between the decline in property crimes and the rise in median income. As the median income increased from $68,845 in 2013 to $90,345 in 2022, a 31.2% rise, property crimes decreased by 55.6% in the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the stable homeownership rate, consistently around 69% from 2013 to 2022, may have contributed to community stability and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, property crimes in Delaware may further decrease by approximately 25-30%, potentially reaching around 300 incidents annually. Burglaries could potentially drop below 20 cases per year, while larceny-theft might decrease to around 275 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft and arson cases are likely to remain low but may fluctuate due to their already small numbers.
In conclusion, Delaware has made remarkable strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The significant decreases in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with the city's economic growth, paint a picture of a community becoming increasingly safer and more prosperous. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for sustaining the quality of life for its residents.
