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Property Crime Trends in De Kalb, Texas: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Loss
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
De Kalb, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, starting at 54 in 2010, peaking at 63 in 2011, and ultimately decreasing to 26 in 2019, representing a 51.85% decrease over this period. Interestingly, this decline in property crime occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing from 3,963 in 2010 to 2,934 in 2019, a 25.97% reduction.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 32 burglaries, which decreased to 12 by 2019, marking a 62.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 8.07 in 2010 to 4.09 in 2019, indicating a significant improvement in burglary prevention relative to the population size. The city's contribution to state-wide burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.03% of the state total, suggesting that the local trend aligns with broader state patterns.
Larceny-theft incidents showed more volatility but an overall decreasing trend. From 22 cases in 2010, it peaked at 39 in 2012 before declining to 13 in 2019, a 40.91% decrease over the decade. The rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 5.55 in 2010 to 5.57 in 2012 due to population decline, before decreasing to 4.43 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained consistently low at 0.01% or less, indicating that local trends had minimal impact on state-wide figures.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low throughout the period. From zero reported cases in 2010, it peaked at 5 in 2011 before stabilizing at 1-3 cases annually in later years. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 1.25 in 2011 and settled at 0.34 in 2019. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft remained minimal, never exceeding 0.01% of the state total, suggesting that this crime type is not a significant concern relative to state-wide occurrences.
Arson cases were consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2019. This absence of arson cases suggests effective fire prevention measures or possibly underreporting, but without further context, it's difficult to draw definitive conclusions.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes appears to correlate with decreasing population density, which fell from 2,894 per square mile in 2010 to 2,143 in 2019. Additionally, there's a potential correlation between the fluctuations in median income and property crime rates. For instance, as median income rose from $39,129 in 2013 to $45,866 in 2014, property crimes remained stable at 54, but as income declined to $41,628 in 2018, property crimes also decreased to 13, suggesting a complex relationship that may involve other factors.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, we can forecast that by 2029, De Kalb may see a further reduction in overall property crimes, potentially reaching single digits annually if current trends continue. Burglaries might stabilize around 5-7 cases per year, while larceny-theft could potentially decrease to below 10 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low, possibly averaging 1-2 cases per year.
In summary, De Kalb has experienced a significant overall decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2019, with notable reductions in burglaries and larceny-theft. This positive trend occurred despite population decline, suggesting improved law enforcement strategies or community-based crime prevention efforts. The city's contribution to state-wide property crimes remains minimal, indicating that local trends, while positive for the community, have limited impact on broader state statistics. As De Kalb moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the continued safety and well-being of its residents.
