Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. Starting with 10 incidents in 2010, the number increased to 32 in 2020 before decreasing to 16 in 2022, resulting in a 60% overall increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.66 in 2010 to 1.03 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.09% in 2010, peaking at 0.32% in 2012, and returning to 0.09% in 2022. This increase in motor vehicle thefts, particularly the spike in 2020, may warrant targeted interventions from local law enforcement.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and low in number. There was only one reported case in 2010, 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2021, with no cases reported in other years. The city's contribution to state arson cases ranged from 0% to 0.2% during this period. The infrequent nature of arson in the city suggests it is not a significant ongoing concern, but continued vigilance is necessary.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $33,624 in 2013 to $47,374 in 2022, overall property crime incidents decreased. Additionally, the slight increase in home ownership rates from 62% in 2013 to 68% in 2022 coincides with the general decline in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher home ownership contributes to community stability and reduced crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to decrease further, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or slightly increase. Arson is predicted to remain at very low levels.

In summary, Dayton has shown positive trends in property crime reduction over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The correlation between rising median income, increased home ownership, and declining crime rates suggests improving socioeconomic conditions may be contributing to enhanced community safety. However, the recent uptick in motor vehicle thefts warrants attention. As the city continues to grow and develop, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies and community engagement will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in the coming years.