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Property Crime Trends in Dauphin Island: A Coastal Town's Declining Crime Rates Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Dauphin Island, located in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing from 57 in 2010 to 18 in 2022, marking a 68.4% reduction. Concurrently, the population grew from 1,375 in 2010 to 1,793 in 2022, representing a 30.4% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 27 burglaries, which decreased to just 2 in 2022, a 92.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 19.64 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.12 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. This substantial decline in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state crime, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased over time, though less dramatically than burglaries. From 28 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 16 in 2022, a 42.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 20.36 in 2010 to 8.92 in 2022. Interestingly, despite the overall decrease, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents actually increased slightly from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, indicating that the reduction in this crime category may have been less pronounced than in other parts of the state.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the period. From 2 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.45 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated but remained low, moving from 0.03% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. These figures suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a significant issue in the community.
Arson data for the city is largely unavailable, with most years reporting 0 incidents. This lack of data makes it challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 219 per square mile in 2010 to 286 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased, suggesting that increased population density did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units rose from 85% in 2013 to 96% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This could indicate that a higher rate of homeownership may contribute to lower crime rates.
The racial composition of the city remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently making up over 90% of residents. The slight increase in diversity, with the Hispanic population growing from 3% in 2013 to 4% in 2022, and the Black population increasing from 1% to 2% in the same period, did not appear to have a significant impact on property crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024), we can anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. Based on the current trends, burglaries and motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain very low or potentially reach zero in some years. Larceny-theft, while decreasing, may stabilize at a low level rather than disappearing entirely.
In summary, Dauphin Island has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred alongside population growth and increased homeownership, suggesting a strengthening community fabric. The forecast for the next five years indicates a continuation of these favorable trends, positioning the city as an increasingly safe place to live and own property.
