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Property Crime Trends in Daphne, Alabama: A Study of Reduction Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Daphne, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 453 incidents in 2010 to 365 in 2022, representing a 19.4% reduction. Concurrently, the population grew significantly from 28,491 in 2010 to 36,173 in 2022, a 27% increase.
Burglary trends in the city show a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 77 burglaries, which decreased to 42 by 2018, a 45.5% reduction. However, there was a sharp increase to 122 burglaries in 2022. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.70 in 2010 to 1.19 in 2018, before rising to 3.37 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased dramatically from 0.33% in 2010 to 1.07% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate rise compared to state trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed fluctuations but an overall decreasing trend. From 368 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 464 in 2017 before declining to 220 in 2022, a 40.2% decrease from 2010. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 12.92 in 2010 to 6.08 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.5% in 2010 to 0.47% in 2022, indicating that the local trend aligns with state patterns.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been relatively stable with some fluctuations. There were 8 incidents in 2010, peaking at 20 in 2016, and settling at 23 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.28 in 2010 to 0.64 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2022, suggesting a faster increase compared to state trends.
Regarding arson, the data is largely unavailable or shows zero incidents for most years, making it difficult to analyze trends meaningfully.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $75,838 in 2013 to $81,609 in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. Additionally, there's a positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and reduced property crime rates. As owner occupancy rose from 70% in 2013 to 76% in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, overall property crime rates may continue to decrease slightly, potentially reaching around 340 incidents per year. Burglary rates might stabilize around 100 incidents annually, while larceny theft could potentially decrease further to about 200 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft may see a slight increase to around 25-30 incidents annually.
In summary, Daphne has shown resilience in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The most notable trends include a substantial reduction in larceny theft, fluctuating but overall decreasing burglary rates, and a slight increase in motor vehicle thefts. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and increasing home ownership, suggest a positive trajectory for the city's property crime landscape.
