Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. In 2010, there were 34 incidents, which decreased to 27 in 2022, a 20.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.77 to 0.56. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.03%. While the overall trend is downward, there have been fluctuations, with a peak of 37 incidents in 2014, suggesting that this crime category remains a concern despite overall improvements.

Arson cases in the city have been relatively rare, with numbers fluctuating between 0 and 4 incidents per year. The rate per 1,000 residents has remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.09. The city's contribution to state arson figures has been minimal, ranging from 0% to 0.07%. The low and stable arson rates indicate that this particular crime is not a significant issue for the community.

Examining correlations reveals interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincides with a significant increase in median income, rising from $154,309 in 2013 to $167,816 in 2022. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the consistent high rate of owner-occupied housing (around 83%) throughout the period may have played a role in maintaining community stability and reducing property crimes.

Racial demographics have also shifted during this period, with the Asian population increasing from 15% in 2013 to 23% in 2022, while the white population decreased from 75% to 65%. This demographic shift doesn't appear to have negatively impacted property crime rates, as they continued to decline during this period of change.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), property crimes in Danville may further decrease by approximately 15-20%. This projection suggests that total property crimes could drop to around 240-250 incidents annually, assuming current trends and factors remain consistent.

In summary, Danville has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The significant reductions in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft, coupled with consistently low arson rates, paint a picture of a community becoming safer despite population growth. These positive trends, correlated with rising incomes and stable homeownership, suggest that Danville is likely to continue experiencing lower property crime rates in the coming years, enhancing its appeal as a safe and prosperous community.