Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a more complex trend. The number of incidents increased from 59 in 2010 to 67 in 2022, a 13.6% rise. When adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 1.15 in 2010 to 1.23 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.5% in 2010 to 0.7% in 2022, suggesting that this type of crime has become relatively more prevalent in the city compared to the state average.

Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years but show an overall increase. From 4 cases in 2010, the number doubled to 8 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.08 in 2010 to 0.15 in 2022. More significantly, the city's share of state arson cases rose dramatically from 0.97% in 2010 to 2.92% in 2022, indicating that arson has become a more prominent issue in the city relative to the state.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The rise in median income from $44,385 in 2013 to $49,073 in 2022 coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential negative correlation between income and property crime rates. Additionally, the increase in the Hispanic population from 44% in 2013 to 50% in 2022, coupled with a decrease in the white population from 46% to 42%, occurred alongside the general decline in property crimes, indicating that demographic shifts may not have negatively impacted crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 70-80 cases per year, while larceny-theft may continue to decline gradually, potentially reaching around 600 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft rates are predicted to remain relatively stable, hovering around 65-70 cases per year. Arson cases, despite their recent increase, are projected to fluctuate between 5-10 cases annually, given their low base number and historical volatility.

In summary, Dalton has experienced a notable improvement in its property crime landscape over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglaries and larceny-theft. However, the rising trends in motor vehicle theft and arson, particularly in relation to state averages, warrant continued attention. The city's changing demographics and improving economic conditions appear to have positively influenced crime rates, suggesting that ongoing community development and economic growth strategies could further enhance public safety in the coming years.