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Property Crime Trends in Cut Bank, Montana: A Decade of Declining Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cut Bank, located in Montana, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 117 incidents in 2010 to 75 in 2022, representing a 35.9% reduction. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 3,095 to 3,199, an increase of 3.4%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 14 burglaries, which peaked at 32 in 2014 before declining to 14 in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 4.52 in 2010 to a high of 10.49 in 2014, settling at 4.38 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.75% in 2010 to 0.9% in 2022, despite the overall decrease in incidents. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, demonstrated a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 100 in 2010 to 55 in 2022, a 45% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 32.31 to 17.19 over this period. However, the city's portion of state larceny-thefts decreased from 0.87% to 0.44%, indicating that the reduction in this crime category was more pronounced locally than at the state level.
Motor vehicle theft showed an interesting pattern. While the number of incidents remained relatively stable (3 in 2010 to 6 in 2022), the rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.97 to 1.88. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, peaking at 0.79% in 2014 before settling at 0.38% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle thefts remained relatively constant in the city, they may have increased more rapidly elsewhere in the state.
Arson incidents were rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2010, 2011, and 2021. The rate per 1,000 people for these years was approximately 0.32. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated significantly due to the low numbers, from 1.82% in 2010 to 0.81% in 2021, with several years reporting no incidents.
Examining correlations, a notable relationship appears between property crime rates and the racial composition of the city. As the percentage of Native American residents increased from 19% in 2013 to 24% in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crimes. This suggests that the changing demographic makeup of the city may have influenced crime patterns.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. Based on the current trends, we project that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease to approximately 60-65 incidents per year, with larceny-theft remaining the predominant category but continuing to decline.
In summary, Cut Bank has experienced a general downward trend in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite a slight population increase. The most significant reductions were seen in larceny-theft, while burglary and motor vehicle theft showed more variability. The changing demographic composition of the city appears to correlate with these crime trends, suggesting that community dynamics play a role in shaping the local crime landscape. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining and enhancing community-based crime prevention strategies could be key to sustaining and improving upon these positive trends.
