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Property Crime Trends in Crestwood, Missouri: A Tale of Decreasing Overall Rates and Rising Motor Vehicle Thefts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Crestwood, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 347 to 216, representing a 37.8% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a population growth of 6.3%, from 11,329 in 2010 to 12,048 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 37 burglaries, which decreased to 22 by 2022, marking a 40.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.27 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.83 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decline, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.17% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decrease. In 2010, there were 306 larceny thefts, which reduced to 163 by 2022, a 46.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 27.01 in 2010 to 13.53 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft decreased slightly from 0.27% to 0.21% over this period, indicating a relatively consistent trend compared to state levels.
Motor vehicle theft presents a contrasting trend. While there were only 4 such thefts in 2010, this number increased to 31 by 2022, a substantial 675% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.35 in 2010 to 2.57 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased dramatically from 0.03% to 0.13%, suggesting a localized issue that outpaced state trends.
Arson cases in the city have been minimal, with zero reported cases in most years. The only exception was in 2021, when a single case was reported, representing 0.15% of state arsons that year. Given the rarity of these incidents, no significant trend can be established.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $74,722 in 2013 to $91,449 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 254 to 216. Population density showed a weak positive correlation with property crime, increasing from 3,080 per square mile in 2013 to 3,359 in 2022, while crime fluctuated.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Crestwood may see a further reduction in overall property crime to around 180 incidents annually. Larceny theft is expected to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching about 135 cases. Burglaries might stabilize around 15-20 cases per year. However, motor vehicle thefts could continue to rise, potentially reaching 40-45 cases annually if current trends persist.
In summary, Crestwood has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts, despite population growth. This positive trend correlates strongly with rising median incomes. However, the concerning increase in motor vehicle thefts warrants attention and targeted prevention strategies. These trends, if continued, suggest a generally improving property crime situation in Crestwood, with the notable exception of vehicle-related offenses.
