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Property Crime Trends in Cresco, Iowa: A Dramatic Decline Amid Population Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cresco, located in Iowa, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2017, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 101 incidents in 2010 to just 21 in 2017, representing a 79.2% reduction. This dramatic decrease occurred while the population remained relatively stable, declining slightly from 4,005 in 2010 to 3,882 in 2017, a decrease of only 3.1%.
The burglary rate in the city showed a notable downward trend over the observed period. In 2010, there were 41 burglaries, which decreased to just 5 in 2017, representing an 87.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.24 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.29 per 1,000 in 2017. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased significantly, from 0.32% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2017. This substantial reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a considerable decline. In 2010, there were 56 reported cases, which dropped to 15 in 2017, a 73.2% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 13.98 in 2010 to 3.86 in 2017. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.14% to 0.04% over the same period. This reduction in petty theft could indicate improved community vigilance or economic factors reducing opportunistic crime.
Motor vehicle theft showed fluctuations but an overall downward trend. From 4 incidents in 2010 (0.13% of state total), it dropped to 1 in 2017 (0.02% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.00 to 0.26 over this period. Notably, there were years (like 2013 and 2016) with no reported motor vehicle thefts, suggesting effective deterrence or possibly improved vehicle security systems.
Arson cases were sporadic and infrequent. The city reported 3 cases in 2010 (0.76% of state total), followed by years with no incidents, and single occurrences in 2013 and 2015 (0.3% and 0.29% of state total, respectively). The rarity of these events makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but the overall direction appears to be a reduction in arson cases.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $45,799 in 2013 to $65,863 in 2021, property crime rates consistently decreased. This suggests that economic improvements in the community may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, we can forecast that property crime rates in Cresco are likely to continue their downward trajectory over the next five years, reaching 2029. By 2029, we might expect to see total property crimes potentially dropping below 15 incidents annually, with burglaries possibly reaching single digits and larceny-theft cases potentially falling below 10 per year. Motor vehicle theft and arson are likely to remain rare occurrences, with potentially years of zero incidents.
In summary, Cresco has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime statistics over the observed period. The consistent decrease across all categories of property crime, coupled with rising median incomes, suggests a positive trajectory for community safety and economic well-being. These trends, if maintained, position the city as a model for effective crime reduction strategies in small urban areas.
