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Property Crime Trends in Crescent City, Florida: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Crescent City, Florida, a small community with a population of 3,038 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 108 to 34, representing a significant 68.5% reduction. During this same period, the city's population declined slightly from 3,444 to 3,038, a decrease of about 11.8%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over time. In 2010, there were 47 burglaries reported, which dropped to just 7 in 2022, representing an 85.1% decrease. When adjusting for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 13.6 in 2010 to 2.3 in 2022. Interestingly, while the overall number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have declined more rapidly in other parts of Florida.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend, albeit less pronounced than burglary. The number of larceny-thefts decreased from 56 in 2010 to 23 in 2022, a 58.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 16.3 in 2010 to 7.6 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures increased slightly from 0.02% to 0.03% over this period, indicating a relatively stable position in the state context.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents decreased from 5 in 2010 to 4 in 2022, a 20% reduction. However, the rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, moving from 1.5 in 2010 to 1.3 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, suggesting that this type of crime may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of Florida.
Arson data for the city shows no reported incidents from 2010 to 2022, consistently representing 0% of state arson cases. This absence of arson cases is notable and could be indicative of effective fire prevention measures or potentially underreporting.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density fluctuated between 1,411 and 1,587 people per square mile from 2013 to 2022, property crime rates generally declined. This suggests that changes in population density had little impact on crime rates. However, there appears to be a weak negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $27,197 in 2013 to $27,842 in 2022, property crime rates tended to decrease, although this relationship is not strong enough to imply causation.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease to around 25-30 incidents per year. This forecast assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively stable.
In summary, Crescent City has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, with particularly notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft. While motor vehicle theft has shown less improvement, it remains relatively low. The absence of arson cases is a positive indicator for public safety. These trends, combined with modest changes in population and income levels, suggest that the city has made progress in addressing property crime issues. However, the increasing share of state crime percentages in some categories indicates that continued vigilance and targeted strategies may be necessary to maintain and improve upon these positive trends in the coming years.
