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Property Crime Trends in Cramerton: A Decade of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cramerton, located in North Carolina, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2017, the total number of property crimes decreased by 16.5%, from 127 to 106 incidents. This decline occurred while the population grew by 4.9%, from 6,714 to 7,043 residents, suggesting an overall improvement in property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary incidents in the city showed a significant downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 34 burglaries, which decreased to 23 by 2017, representing a 32.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 5.06 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.27 per 1,000 in 2017. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2017, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did so at a slower rate compared to the state average. This trend suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it did not keep pace with statewide improvements.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited fluctuations but ultimately decreased. From 90 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 54 in 2015, before rising again to 80 in 2017. This represents an 11.1% overall decrease from 2010 to 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 13.40 in 2010 to 11.36 in 2017. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2017, indicating that the local trend closely mirrored the state trend.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a slight increase over the observed period. There were 3 incidents in 2010, which remained the same in 2017, but peaked at 5 in 2014 and 2015. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, going from 0.45 in 2010 to 0.43 in 2017. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2017, suggesting that while the local rate remained stable, it did not improve as much as the state average.
Arson data for the city shows zero incidents reported throughout the observed period, indicating that arson was not a significant concern for the community during these years.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $70,609 in 2013 to $77,739 in 2017, property crimes decreased from 127 in 2010 to 106 in 2017, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between income and property crime rates. Additionally, as the white population percentage decreased from 88% in 2013 to 85% in 2017, and the black population increased from 6% to 7%, property crime rates remained relatively stable, indicating no strong correlation between these demographic shifts and crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we can estimate that by 2029, if current trends continue, the city may see a further reduction in overall property crimes to approximately 95 incidents per year. This projection assumes continued population growth and economic stability.
In summary, Cramerton has experienced a general decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2017, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts, despite population growth. The city's progress in reducing property crimes, while positive, has not always kept pace with statewide improvements. The correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further contribute to crime reduction. As the city continues to evolve demographically and economically, maintaining focus on community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
