Motor vehicle theft has shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 16 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 81 in 2020, representing a 406% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.0 in 2010 to 5.1 in 2020. More alarmingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.50% in 2020, indicating that this crime type has become a significant issue relative to state trends.

Arson incidents have fluctuated but remained relatively low. The highest number of arsons was 8 in 2017, with several years reporting zero incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents has remained below 0.5 throughout the period. The city's share of state arsons has varied, peaking at 0.61% in 2017 but dropping to 0% in 2020.

There appears to be a correlation between the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the slight decrease in median income from $70,366 in 2014 to $68,717 in 2020. Additionally, the rise in motor vehicle thefts coincides with a slight decrease in owner-occupied housing from 84% in 2013 to 78% in 2020. The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with a slight increase in the Black population from 81% in 2013 to 87% in 2020, which doesn't appear to have a strong correlation with the overall property crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate that burglary rates will likely continue to decrease, potentially reaching less than 10 incidents per year. Larceny-theft may stabilize around 450-500 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft is projected to be the most concerning trend, potentially increasing to over 100 incidents per year if current trends continue unchecked. Arson is expected to remain low, with sporadic incidents not exceeding 5 per year.

In summary, Country Club Hills has made significant strides in reducing burglaries, but faces challenges with increasing motor vehicle thefts. The city's property crime landscape reflects a shifting pattern, with some crime types decreasing while others rise, against a backdrop of modest population growth and slight economic fluctuations. These trends underscore the need for targeted strategies to address specific crime types, particularly motor vehicle theft, while maintaining the positive momentum in burglary prevention.