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Property Crime Trends in Cortland, NY: A Decade of Fluctuations and Rising Larceny
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cortland, located in New York State, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 77.3%, rising from 357 to 633 incidents. This significant increase occurred despite a population decline of 8.7% during the same period, from 19,257 to 17,574 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a general decline over time. In 2010, there were 112 burglaries reported, which decreased to 70 in 2022, representing a 37.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.82 in 2010 to 3.98 in 2022. However, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.28% in 2010 to 0.31% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a substantial increase over the years. In 2010, there were 228 reported cases, which rose to 549 in 2022, marking a 140.8% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 11.84 in 2010 to 31.24 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases also increased significantly, from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.29% in 2022. This trend suggests that larceny-theft has become a more prevalent issue in the city relative to both its population and state figures.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but has seen some fluctuation. There were 17 cases in 2010, which decreased to a low of 2 cases in 2019, but then increased to 14 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0.88 in 2010 to 0.80 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2022, indicating that this type of crime has grown less rapidly in the city compared to state averages.
Arson cases have shown volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 2 reported cases, which dropped to 0 in several years, including 2015, 2016, and 2017. However, in 2022, there was a spike to 4 cases. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.10 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state arson cases increased dramatically from 0.35% in 2010 to 0.86% in 2022, suggesting that arson has become a more significant issue in the city relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As population density decreased from 4,945 per square mile in 2010 to 4,513 in 2022, total property crimes increased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between rising median income and increased property crime. The median income rose from $43,182 in 2013 to $59,193 in 2022, coinciding with the overall increase in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the following: Burglaries may continue to decline slightly, potentially reaching around 60-65 cases annually. Larceny-theft is likely to continue its upward trend, possibly exceeding 600 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft might stabilize or show a slight increase, potentially reaching 15-18 cases annually. Arson cases may fluctuate but could remain higher than historical averages, possibly around 3-5 cases per year.
In summary, Cortland has experienced a complex evolution of property crime trends. While burglaries have decreased, larceny-theft has seen a dramatic rise. Motor vehicle theft and arson, though relatively low in absolute numbers, have shown concerning increases in recent years. These trends, coupled with the city's declining population and increasing median income, suggest a changing crime landscape that may require targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address effectively.
