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Property Crime Trends in Cordova, Alabama: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cordova, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 142 incidents in 2011 to 57 in 2022, representing a 59.9% reduction. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population fluctuation, with the city's population decreasing from 3,180 in 2011 to 2,928 in 2022, a 7.9% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2011, there were 33 burglaries reported, which decreased to 10 in 2022, marking a 69.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.38 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 3.41 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the absolute number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, moving from 0.09% in 2011 to 0.09% in 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it kept pace with statewide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a significant decline over the period. In 2011, 98 larceny-thefts were reported, which dropped to 43 in 2022, a 56.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 30.82 in 2011 to 14.69 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively constant, moving from 0.11% in 2011 to 0.09% in 2022, indicating that the reduction in larceny-theft was somewhat in line with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more complex pattern. There were 11 incidents in 2011, which decreased to 4 in 2022, a 63.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.46 in 2011 to 1.37 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.13% in 2011, dropping to 0.03% in 2016, and then rising again to 0.06% in 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its motor vehicle theft situation overall, it experienced periods of both better and worse performance relative to the state.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only two incidents reported in 2011 and no data available for most subsequent years until 2022, when zero incidents were reported. This makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends.
Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $30,616 in 2013 to $37,789 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. Similarly, as the percentage of owner-occupied housing rose from 70% in 2013 to 83% in 2022, property crime rates declined. This suggests a potential link between economic stability, homeownership, and reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously due to the limited data points and potential unforeseen factors that could influence crime rates.
In summary, Cordova has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, with improvements across all major categories. This positive trend coincides with increases in median income and homeownership rates, suggesting that economic factors may play a role in crime reduction. While the city's share of state crime has remained relatively stable in most categories, the overall decrease in crime rates indicates a safer environment for residents. As the city moves forward, maintaining and building upon these positive trends will be crucial for continued community safety and well-being.
