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Property Crime Trends in Cool Valley, Missouri: Inverse Relationship with Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cool Valley, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2014, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 78 incidents in 2010 to 48 in 2014, representing a 38.5% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a population increase from 1,574 in 2010 to 1,863 in 2014, a growth of 18.4%.
Burglary rates in the city showed a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries, which decreased to 7 by 2014, a 69.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, this translates to a decrease from 14.6 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.8 per 1,000 in 2014. Interestingly, despite this significant decrease in raw numbers, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.07% and 0.01% during this period. This suggests that while the city was improving its burglary rate, it was doing so at a pace similar to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed a less dramatic but still positive trend. Incidents decreased from 45 in 2010 to 40 in 2014, an 11.1% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, this represents a more significant decrease from 28.6 thefts per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 21.5 per 1,000 in 2014. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained constant at 0.04% throughout this period, indicating that the city's improvements were in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed substantial fluctuation. From 10 incidents in 2010, it dropped to zero in 2012, before rising slightly to 1 incident in 2014. This represents a 90% decrease over the five-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.4 in 2010 to 0.5 in 2014. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.08% to 0.01%, suggesting a more significant improvement compared to state averages.
Arson cases in the city were rare but showed an increase. From 2 incidents in 2010 to 2 in 2014, the raw number remained the same, but considering the population growth, this actually represents a decrease in the rate per 1,000 residents from 1.3 to 1.1. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased dramatically from 0.19% to 0.24%, indicating that arson became a more significant issue relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 3,433 per square mile in 2010 to 4,063 in 2014, total property crimes decreased. This could suggest that increased urbanization and community presence may have deterred criminal activity.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, Cool Valley may see its property crime rate continue to decline, potentially reaching around 30-35 total incidents annually. This projection assumes continued population growth and maintenance of current socio-economic factors.
In summary, Cool Valley has shown remarkable improvement in its property crime rates across most categories from 2010 to 2014, outpacing population growth and often improving relative to state averages. The most significant reductions were seen in burglary and motor vehicle theft, while larceny-theft showed modest improvements. Arson, though rare, emerged as an area of concern. These trends, coupled with increasing population density, suggest a city that has become safer over time, with potential for continued improvement in the coming years.
