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Property Crime Trends in Converse, Texas: A Decade of Growth and Fluctuation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Converse, located in Texas, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 24.24%, rising from 396 to 492 incidents. During this same period, the population grew substantially by 31.18%, from 31,273 to 41,023 residents, indicating a complex relationship between population growth and crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable fluctuations. In 2010, there were 65 burglaries, which peaked at 97 in 2012 before declining to 54 in 2019. However, by 2022, burglaries surged to 122, marking an 87.69% increase from 2010. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.08 in 2010 to 2.97 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries rose dramatically from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, indicating a growing concentration of burglary incidents relative to the state.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed a more modest increase over time. In 2010, there were 315 larceny thefts, which rose to 323 by 2022, representing a 2.54% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people actually decreased from 10.07 in 2010 to 7.87 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft incidents increased from 0.06% to 0.08% over this period, suggesting a slight increase in the city's share of these crimes relative to the state.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited a significant upward trend. In 2010, there were 16 such thefts, which increased to 47 by 2022, marking a 193.75% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.51 in 2010 to 1.15 in 2022. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts doubled from 0.03% to 0.06%, indicating a growing problem relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some variation. From 3 cases in 2010, the number decreased to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.096 to 0.024. The city's share of state arson cases decreased slightly from 0.07% to 0.05%, suggesting a relatively stable situation compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,311 per square mile in 2010 to 4,343 in 2022, property crimes also rose. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 38% in 2013 to 46% in 2022, property crime rates showed an upward trend, particularly in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in overall property crimes. Burglaries are projected to rise by approximately 15-20%, potentially reaching around 140-150 incidents annually. Larceny theft is expected to remain relatively stable with a slight upward trend, possibly reaching 340-350 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts are predicted to continue their sharp upward trajectory, potentially increasing by 25-30% to around 60-65 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low but may see slight fluctuations between 1-3 cases per year.
In summary, Converse has experienced a complex evolution in property crime rates amidst significant population growth. The most concerning trends are the sharp increases in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, which have outpaced population growth. These trends, coupled with the city's increasing share of state crime figures, suggest a need for targeted law enforcement strategies and community-based crime prevention initiatives. The correlations between demographic shifts, population density, and crime rates highlight the importance of considering socioeconomic factors in addressing these challenges.
