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Property Crime Trends in Connellsville, PA: Economic Growth and Crime Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Connellsville, a city in Pennsylvania, has witnessed significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade, coinciding with a declining population. Between 2010 and 2018, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased by 14.56%, from 309 to 264 incidents. During this same period, the city's population declined by 5.11%, from 8,009 to 7,600 residents.
Burglary trends in Connellsville have shown considerable variability. The number of burglaries increased from 54 in 2010 to a peak of 85 in 2013, before declining to 43 in 2018, representing a 20.37% decrease over the eight-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 6.74 in 2010 to 5.66 in 2018. However, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.21% to 0.33%, indicating that local burglaries did not decrease as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most prevalent property crime in Connellsville, demonstrated a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 243 in 2010 to 214 in 2018, an 11.93% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people also decreased from 30.34 to 28.16, showing a slight improvement relative to the population decline. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts increased marginally from 0.31% to 0.33%, suggesting that the local decrease was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in Connellsville exhibited minor fluctuations. The number of incidents decreased from 12 in 2010 to 7 in 2018, a 41.67% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.50 to 0.92. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.11% to 0.08%, indicating that local trends generally aligned with state trends.
Arson data for Connellsville is limited and inconsistent. Reported incidents were zero for most years, with exceptions in 2014 (2 incidents) and 2016 (4 incidents). This sporadic nature makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends or comparisons to state levels.
An examination of correlations reveals a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income in Connellsville. As median income increased from $34,156 in 2013 to $43,451 in 2018, total property crimes decreased from 357 to 264. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced crime rates.
Based on the available data and trends, a predictive model for property crime in Connellsville suggests a continued gradual decline. Projecting seven years from 2018, the model estimates that by 2025, total property crimes could decrease to approximately 230 incidents, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue.
In summary, Connellsville has experienced an overall decrease in property crime rates between 2010 and 2018, with some fluctuations in specific categories. The most significant improvements were seen in motor vehicle theft and burglary rates. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and a slightly declining population, suggest a gradually improving public safety situation in the city. However, the city's share of state crime in some categories has increased slightly, indicating that local improvements may be outpacing state averages in certain areas.
