Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. The number of incidents increased from 19 in 2010 to 40 in 2022, a 110.5% increase. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.44 in 2010 to 0.91 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of 11.83% in 2016 before settling at 7.45% in 2022.

Arson cases in the city have shown fluctuations over the years. From 12 incidents in 2010, the number decreased to 8 in 2022, a 33.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.28 in 2010 to 0.18 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 6.98% in 2010 to 12.7% in 2022, indicating that arson reduction in the city has not kept pace with state-wide improvements.

A strong correlation exists between property crime trends and median income. As the median income increased from $67,408 in 2013 to $81,404 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 1,024 to 600. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

Population density showed a weak correlation with property crime trends, increasing slightly from 665 people per square mile in 2013 to 688 in 2022, while property crimes decreased. Home ownership rates remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 53% and 57% during this period, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.

Racial distribution changes were minimal, with the white population decreasing slightly from 91% in 2013 to 86% in 2022, while other racial groups saw small increases. These changes do not show a strong correlation with property crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), total property crimes could potentially decrease further to around 500 incidents annually. Burglaries may continue their downward trend, potentially reaching as low as 15 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is likely to remain the most common property crime but could decrease to approximately 450 cases annually. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize around 35-40 incidents per year, while arson cases could potentially decrease to 5-6 annually.

In summary, Concord has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's improving economic conditions, as reflected in rising median incomes, appear to be a key factor in this positive trend. While challenges remain, particularly in motor vehicle theft and arson, the overall trajectory suggests a safer urban environment. These improvements, coupled with modest population growth, indicate that Concord is evolving into a more secure and prosperous community.