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Property Crime Trends in Concord: A Decade of Mixed Results
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Concord, located in California, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 9.34%, from 3,799 to 3,444 incidents. During this same period, the city's population remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.09% from 122,508 to 122,616 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 922 burglaries, which decreased to 514 by 2022, representing a 44.25% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 7.53 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.19 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries actually decreased slightly from 0.5% in 2010 to 0.44% in 2022. This suggests that while burglary rates improved locally, they may have improved even more rapidly at the state level.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw an increase over the period. In 2010, there were 2,128 larceny thefts, which rose to 2,369 by 2022, an 11.32% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 17.37 in 2010 to 19.32 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 0.41% to 0.48%, indicating that this type of crime grew faster in the city compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft showed a notable decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 749 motor vehicle thefts, which reduced to 561 by 2022, a 25.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.11 in 2010 to 4.58 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased significantly from 0.59% to 0.37%, suggesting substantial improvement in this area relative to state trends.
Arson cases, while relatively low in number, saw a dramatic increase. In 2010, there were 6 reported arsons, which rose to 68 by 2022, a 1033.33% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.05 in 2010 to 0.55 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons rose sharply from 0.1% to 1.1%, indicating a significant localized issue with this crime type.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $66,086 in 2013 to $104,523 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes, with burglary and motor vehicle theft likely to maintain their downward trends. However, larceny theft may continue to rise moderately, and arson cases could potentially stabilize or slightly decrease from their current peak.
In summary, Concord has shown mixed results in property crime trends over the past decade. While burglary and motor vehicle theft have significantly improved, larceny theft has increased, and arson has become a growing concern. The inverse relationship between rising median income and falling overall property crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could play a crucial role in further reducing property crime in the coming years.
