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Property Crime Trends in Columbine Valley: A Decade of Growth and Fluctuation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Columbine Valley, a small community in Colorado, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates alongside significant population growth over the past decade. From 2011 to 2020, the total number of property crimes varied, reaching a peak of 23 incidents in 2020, a 91.67% increase from the 12 incidents reported in 2011. During this same period, the population grew from 1,221 in 2011 to 1,268.5 in 2020, representing a 3.89% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable variations. In 2011, there were 2 burglaries reported, which increased to 4 in 2020. This represents a 100% increase over the decade. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.64 in 2011 to 3.15 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries doubled from 0.01% in 2011 to 0.02% in 2020, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends. This rise in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state crime, suggests a growing concern for local law enforcement and residents.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a significant upward trend. In 2011, there were 9 reported cases, which doubled to 18 by 2020, marking a 100% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 7.37 in 2011 to 14.19 in 2020. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents also increased from 0.01% in 2011 to 0.02% in 2020. This substantial rise in larceny-theft cases, outpacing population growth, indicates a growing property crime issue that may require targeted intervention strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but showed an increase towards the end of the decade. From zero reported cases in most years, including 2019, there was 1 case reported in 2020. This translates to a rate of 0.79 per 1,000 residents in 2020. The percentage of state motor vehicle thefts remained at 0.0% throughout most of the period, suggesting that this type of crime is not a significant concern relative to state levels.
Arson cases in the city have been consistently reported as zero from 2011 to 2020, with no change in the trend. This stability in arson incidents, despite population growth, indicates that fire-related property crimes are not a pressing issue for the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The significant increase in property crimes, particularly burglaries and larceny-thefts, coincides with a period of rising median income in the city. The median income grew from $150,694 in 2013 to $193,263 in 2020, a 28.25% increase. This correlation suggests that as the community became more affluent, it may have become a more attractive target for property crimes. Additionally, the consistently high percentage of owner-occupied housing, ranging from 96% to 98% during this period, could be a factor in the property crime trends, as it may influence the types of targets available to potential offenders.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. If current patterns persist, the city might expect to see around 6-7 burglaries and 25-30 larceny-thefts annually by 2029. However, motor vehicle thefts are predicted to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 1-2 cases per year. Arson cases are expected to remain at or near zero, based on historical data.
In summary, Columbine Valley has experienced a notable increase in property crimes, particularly burglaries and larceny-thefts, over the past decade. This trend has outpaced population growth and coincided with rising median incomes. The city's contribution to state property crime rates has also increased, suggesting a localized issue that may require targeted law enforcement and community prevention strategies. As the community continues to grow and prosper, addressing these property crime trends will be crucial for maintaining the safety and security of its residents.
