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Property Crime Trends in Columbia, Kentucky: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Columbia, Kentucky, a small urban center with a population of 8,678 in 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 55.2%, from 29 to 13 incidents, while the population grew by 10.8% during the same period.
The trend in burglaries shows a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 12 burglaries, which peaked at 22 in 2013 before dropping to 6 in 2022, marking a 50% decrease overall. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 1.53 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.69 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, suggesting a potentially faster decline in burglaries at the state level.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a downward trend, decreasing from 15 in 2010 to 7 in 2022, a 53.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 1.91 in 2010 to 0.81 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, indicating that the local trend generally aligned with state-level changes.
Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated but ultimately decreased from 2 incidents in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0.26 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied significantly, peaking at 0.09% in 2017 before dropping to 0% in 2022, suggesting local improvements outpaced state-level trends in recent years.
Arson cases in Columbia were minimal, with only one reported incident in 2010 and 2011, and none thereafter. This translates to a rate decrease from 0.13 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0 from 2012 onwards. The city's contribution to state arson cases dropped from 0.24% in 2010 to 0% in subsequent years, indicating effective local arson prevention or reporting changes.
A strong correlation emerges between property crime trends and median income. As median income increased from $35,386 in 2013 to $44,517 in 2022, property crimes decreased from 64 to 13 during the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Columbia could see a further reduction in property crimes to approximately 8-10 incidents annually, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue.
In summary, Columbia has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, outpacing population growth and often improving relative to state-level trends. The correlation with rising median incomes suggests that continued economic development could further enhance public safety in this Kentucky community.
