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Property Crime Trends in Cole Camp, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cole Camp, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a peak of 30 incidents in 2015 and a low of zero reported cases in 2022. This represents a 100% decrease in property crimes over the 12-year span. Concurrently, the population grew modestly from 3,350 in 2010 to 3,453 in 2022, an increase of about 3%.
Burglary rates in the city showed significant variation over time. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries reported, which increased to a high of 11 in both 2015 and 2016. This peak represented a 450% increase from 2010 levels. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate rose from 0.60 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.03 per 1,000 in 2015 and 3.31 per 1,000 in 2016. The city's share of state burglaries also increased dramatically, from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2016. However, by 2018, burglaries had dropped to zero, indicating a complete elimination of this crime type within the city limits.
Larceny-theft trends followed a similar pattern of fluctuation. Starting with 8 incidents in 2010, the number peaked at 21 in 2014, representing a 162.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 2.39 in 2010 to 5.68 in 2014. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures doubled from 0.01% to 0.02% during this period. By 2018, larceny-theft had decreased to 10 incidents, or 2.97 per 1,000 residents, showing a slight improvement from 2010 levels.
Motor vehicle theft remained relatively low throughout the period. The highest number of incidents was 3 in 2012, equating to 0.83 thefts per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts reached a maximum of 0.02% that year. In most other years, there were either zero or one incident reported, indicating that this crime type was not a significant issue for the community.
Arson was an extremely rare occurrence in Cole Camp. Only one incident was reported throughout the entire period, in 2013. This single event represented 0.13% of the state's arson cases for that year and a rate of 0.28 per 1,000 residents. The absence of arson cases in all other years suggests that this was an isolated incident rather than a persistent problem.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The peak in property crimes from 2014 to 2016 coincided with a period of relative stability in the city's population density and a modest increase in median income. For instance, the median income rose from $40,915 in 2014 to $43,241 in 2016, while property crimes remained high. This suggests that economic factors alone may not have been the primary driver of crime rates during this period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging given the sharp decline to zero reported crimes in 2022. However, based on the historical volatility, it would be reasonable to expect some fluctuation rather than a continuation of zero crimes. A conservative estimate might project a gradual increase to levels similar to those seen in 2017-2018, with perhaps 10-15 total property crimes annually by 2029.
In summary, Cole Camp has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, with a notable peak in the mid-2010s followed by a sharp decline. The complete absence of reported property crimes in 2022 is particularly striking and warrants further investigation to understand the factors contributing to this positive outcome. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining this low crime rate will likely be a priority for local law enforcement and community leaders.
