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Property Crime Trends in Colchester, Illinois: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Colchester, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2011 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable increase from 6 incidents in 2011 to 9 in 2022, representing a 50% rise. During this same timeframe, the population grew from 1,748 in 2011 to 1,787 in 2022, a modest 2.23% increase.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variation over time. In 2011 and 2013, there were no reported burglaries. However, by 2022, the number increased to 3 incidents. This translates to a rate of 1.68 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2022, up from 0 in earlier years. The percentage of state burglaries attributed to the city also rose, reaching 0.02% in 2022. This uptick suggests a growing concern for property security within the community, despite its small size.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a declining trend. In 2011, there were 6 reported incidents, which decreased to 5 in 2022. This represents a reduction from 3.43 to 2.80 incidents per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state larceny-thefts remained consistently low at 0%, indicating that these incidents have a minimal impact on statewide statistics. This downward trend in larceny-theft is a positive sign for the community's overall safety.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been sporadic. There were no reported incidents in 2011 and 2012, one incident in 2013, and then another single incident in 2022. This translates to a rate of 0.56 thefts per 1,000 residents in 2022. The percentage of state motor vehicle thefts attributed to the city fluctuated between 0% and 0.01%, suggesting that these crimes remain relatively rare and have little impact on statewide figures.
Arson incidents have been consistently low in the city. From 2011 to 2022, there were no reported cases of arson. This stability in arson statistics, with a consistent rate of 0 incidents per 1,000 residents and 0% of state arson cases, indicates effective fire prevention and community safety measures.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 1,519 per square mile in 2011 to 1,553 in 2022, coinciding with the overall increase in property crimes. This suggests a potential link between higher population density and increased property crime rates. Additionally, the median income rose from $42,347 in 2013 to $44,669 in 2022, which may have influenced the types of property crimes committed, particularly the shift towards more burglaries.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the observed patterns. Burglaries may continue to increase slightly, while larceny-theft could stabilize or decrease further. Motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain low but may occur sporadically. Arson incidents are expected to remain at zero or near-zero levels.
In summary, Colchester has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. The most significant changes include an increase in burglaries and a decrease in larceny-thefts, while motor vehicle thefts and arson remain rare occurrences. These trends, coupled with the city's demographic changes, paint a picture of a small community grappling with shifting property crime patterns as it grows and evolves.
