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Property Crime Trends in Coatesville: A Decade of Improvement Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Coatesville, located in Pennsylvania, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2017, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 487 to 279, representing a 42.7% reduction. During this same period, the population grew slightly from 12,775 to 13,171, an increase of 3.1%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 111 burglaries reported, which decreased to 65 in 2017, marking a 41.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.69 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.94 per 1,000 in 2017. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.43% in 2010, peaking at 0.47% in 2012, and settling at 0.45% in 2017. This trend suggests that while burglaries decreased overall, the city's contribution to state totals remained relatively stable.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend. In 2010, 340 cases were reported, which decreased to 193 by 2017, a 43.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 26.61 in 2010 to 14.65 in 2017. The city's share of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.44% in 2010 to 0.29% in 2017, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state-wide trend.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility but ultimately decreased. From 36 cases in 2010, it peaked at 59 in 2013 before declining to 21 in 2017, a 41.7% overall reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.82 in 2010 to 1.59 in 2017. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, from 0.34% in 2010 to a high of 0.71% in 2013, before settling at 0.26% in 2017.
Arson cases were not reported in 2010 and 2011 but emerged in the data from 2012 onwards. The number of arsons peaked at 9 in 2013 and then decreased to 3 in 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents was highest in 2013 at 0.69 and fell to 0.23 in 2017. Notably, the city's share of state arsons was disproportionately high in some years, reaching 1.79% in 2013 before decreasing to 0.37% in 2017.
Analysis of correlations reveals interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $43,389 in 2013 to $45,010 in 2017, overall property crime decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of Black residents and property crime rates, as both decreased slightly over the observed period.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, overall property crime rates in the city could potentially decrease by an additional 15-20% if current trends continue. However, this projection should be interpreted cautiously due to the limited data range and potential external factors.
In summary, Coatesville has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes across all categories from 2010 to 2017, outpacing its population growth. The most dramatic decreases were seen in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson showed more variable patterns. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes, suggest improving safety and economic conditions in the city. However, the disproportionate rates of certain crimes compared to state averages indicate areas for continued focus in crime prevention and community development strategies.
