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Property Crime Trends in Clyde, Texas: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Clyde, located in Texas, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 87 incidents in 2010 to 33 in 2022, representing a 62.1% reduction. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population fluctuation, with the city's population decreasing from 6,137 in 2010 to 5,772 in 2022, a 5.9% decrease.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 23 burglary incidents, which decreased to 15 in 2022, representing a 34.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.75 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.60 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny theft also shows a downward trend. In 2010, there were 58 larceny theft incidents, which decreased to 16 in 2022, a substantial 72.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 9.45 in 2010 to 2.77 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable at 0.01% in 2010 and dropped to 0% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction in larceny theft was generally in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years but shows an overall decrease. From 6 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 2 in 2022, a 66.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.98 in 2010 to 0.35 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, at 0.01% in 2010 and 0% in 2022, suggesting that motor vehicle theft is not a significant issue relative to state figures.
Arson incidents in the city have been sporadic and low in number. There were no reported arsons in 2010 and 2022, with occasional incidents in between (maximum of 2 in 2015). Due to the low numbers, it's difficult to establish a clear trend, but it's evident that arson is not a prevalent issue in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $51,320 in 2013 to $51,480 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased. Additionally, there's a slight correlation between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in Hispanic population, which grew from 7% in 2013 to 15% in 2022. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and these relationships may be coincidental.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, we can forecast that property crime rates in the city are likely to continue their downward trend over the next five years (up to 2029). If current trends persist, we might expect to see total property crimes potentially dropping below 30 incidents annually by 2029. However, this prediction should be treated cautiously as crime rates can be influenced by various unpredictable factors.
In summary, Clyde has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population decline. This trend, particularly notable in burglary and larceny theft, suggests improving public safety despite demographic changes. The city's ability to maintain low crime rates while experiencing economic and demographic shifts offers valuable insights for similar-sized communities aiming to enhance public safety and quality of life.
