Motor vehicle theft in the city has seen fluctuations but an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 386 incidents, which reduced to 187 in 2022, a 51.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.02 in 2010 to 1.50 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.30% to 0.12%, indicating that local improvements outpaced state averages. This trend could be attributed to improved vehicle security technologies or targeted law enforcement efforts.

Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but fluctuated over the years. There were 22 cases in 2010, which decreased to 7 in 2022, representing a 68.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.23 in 2010 to 0.06 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases decreased only slightly from 0.36% to 0.11%, suggesting that while improvements were made locally, they were somewhat in line with state-level changes.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 3,710 per square mile in 2010 to 4,817 in 2022, property crime rates decreased, contradicting the common assumption that higher density leads to more crime. Additionally, the median income rose from $65,095 in 2013 to $100,399 in 2022, a 54.2% increase, which coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced criminal activity.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued modest decline in overall property crime rates. Based on current trends, burglaries and motor vehicle thefts are expected to stabilize at their current low levels, while larceny-theft may see a further slight decrease. However, as the population continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will require ongoing vigilance and adaptive strategies from law enforcement and the community.

In conclusion, Clovis has demonstrated remarkable progress in reducing property crime rates across all categories, despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates, which have decreased substantially both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state totals. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes and increasing population density, paint a picture of a city that has successfully managed its growth while enhancing public safety. As the city looks to the future, maintaining these gains and adapting to new challenges will be crucial in ensuring continued safety and prosperity for its residents.