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Property Crime Trends in Clinton, Tennessee: A Decade of Declining Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Clinton, Tennessee, a small urban area covering 12.24 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 50.64%, from 470 to 232 incidents. During the same period, the population increased by 6.89%, from 16,742 to 17,896 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 90 burglaries, which decreased to 25 in 2022, representing a 72.22% reduction. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 5.38 in 2010 to 1.40 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.21% in 2010, peaking at 0.30% in 2017, and settling at 0.19% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to the population, suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a considerable decline. In 2010, there were 360 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 182 in 2022, a 49.44% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 21.50 in 2010 to 10.17 in 2022. The city's portion of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.31% in 2010 to 0.24% in 2022, with a peak of 0.45% in 2015. This decline suggests improved community vigilance or enhanced retail security measures.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 20 incidents, which increased to 25 in 2022, a 25% rise. However, the rate per 1,000 people only slightly increased from 1.19 in 2010 to 1.40 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, from 0.19% in 2010 to a peak of 0.45% in 2017, before settling at 0.14% in 2022. This trend indicates that while the absolute number of thefts increased, the city's contribution to state totals decreased, possibly due to more significant increases in other areas of Tennessee.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but variable. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, which increased to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose slightly from 0.06 in 2010 to 0.17 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated dramatically, from 0.13% in 2010 to a peak of 0.69% in 2014 and 2015, before reaching 0.56% in 2022. These fluctuations, given the low numbers, suggest that arson is not a persistent problem but may occur in sporadic incidents.
A notable correlation exists between the overall decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income. From 2013 to 2022, the median income rose from $48,680 to $60,591, a 24.47% increase, while property crimes decreased by 29.05% in the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we can expect the downward trend to continue, albeit at a slower rate. By 2029, five years from now, total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 15-20%, reaching around 190-200 incidents annually. This projection assumes continued economic growth and stability in the city.
In summary, Clinton has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The correlation between rising incomes and falling crime rates suggests that continued focus on economic development could further enhance public safety. While motor vehicle theft and arson require ongoing attention, the overall trend indicates a safer community with lower property crime risks.
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