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Property Crime Trends in Clifton, Texas: A Decade of Decline and Volatility
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Clifton, Texas, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 30 incidents in 2010 to 10 in 2022, representing a 66.7% reduction. During this same period, the population slightly decreased from 4,377 in 2010 to 4,309 in 2022, a 1.6% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 14 in 2021 before sharply declining to 2 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.37 in 2010 to 3.21 in 2021, then dropped to 0.46 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained minimal, peaking at 0.02% in 2021 but generally staying at or below 0.01%. This volatility suggests localized factors may be influencing burglary trends rather than broader state-wide patterns.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a general downward trend. From 24 cases in 2010, the number fluctuated, reaching a high of 30 in 2016 before decreasing to 6 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 5.48 in 2010 to 1.39 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.01%. This trend indicates an improving situation for petty theft crimes within the community.
Motor vehicle theft has remained relatively low throughout the period. There were no reported cases in 2010, 2011, and 2012. The highest number was 4 incidents in 2017, with 2 cases reported in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.92 in 2017 and stood at 0.46 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics has been negligible, consistently at or near 0%. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson cases have been rare in the city. Only two years, 2012 and 2021, reported any arson incidents, with one case each. The rate per 1,000 residents for these years was 0.24 and 0.23, respectively. The city's contribution to state arson statistics was 0.03% in 2012 and 0.04% in 2021. The infrequency of arson cases indicates it is not a persistent problem in the area.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $49,196 in 2013 to $63,055 in 2022, overall property crime incidents decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates could continue to decrease. The model suggests a potential range of 5-15 total property crimes annually, maintaining the city's low contribution to state crime statistics.
In conclusion, Clifton has experienced a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in larceny-theft and burglary. The city's contribution to state crime statistics remains minimal across all categories. The inverse correlation between rising median incomes and falling crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further reinforce this positive trend. As the community moves forward, maintaining these low crime rates while addressing occasional spikes in specific categories will be key to ensuring a safe environment for residents.
