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Property Crime Trends in Clifton, New Jersey: A Decade of Change in a Diverse Suburban City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Clifton, New Jersey, a diverse suburban city located in Passaic County, has experienced notable shifts in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Clifton fluctuated, ultimately increasing by 4.64% from 1,638 to 1,714 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 5.29%, from 84,262 to 88,722 residents, suggesting a complex relationship between demographic changes and criminal activity.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over time. In 2011, there were 311 burglaries reported, which decreased to 104 in 2022, representing a substantial 66.56% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.69 in 2011 to 1.17 in 2022, a 68.29% decrease. Interestingly, despite this decline, Clifton's share of state burglaries increased from 1.57% in 2011 to 2.18% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvement outpaced the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents in the city have shown more variability but ultimately increased over the period. In 2011, there were 1,131 larceny-thefts reported, which rose to 1,420 in 2022, a 25.55% increase. Adjusting for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 13.42 in 2011 to 16.01 in 2022, a 19.30% rise. The city's share of state larceny-thefts grew significantly from 2.44% to 3.92%, suggesting that Clifton experienced a higher increase in this crime category compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in Clifton has fluctuated but showed a net decrease from 196 incidents in 2011 to 190 in 2022, a 3.06% reduction. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.33 in 2011 to 2.14 in 2022, an 8.15% drop. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 1.75% to 2.90%, indicating that while Clifton saw a slight decrease, it fared better than the state average.
Arson cases in the city have shown a dramatic decline. In 2011, there were 12 reported arsons, which dropped to 0 in 2022. This represents a 100% decrease in both the number of incidents and the rate per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state arsons fell from 2.63% to 0%, indicating a significant improvement in this crime category relative to the state.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 7,473 people per square mile in 2011 to 7,869 in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in overall property crimes, particularly larceny-theft. This suggests a potential link between increased urbanization and certain types of property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued increase in overall property crimes, driven primarily by larceny-theft. The models predict that burglary rates will continue to decline, while motor vehicle theft may see a slight uptick. Arson cases are expected to remain at or near zero, barring any significant changes in local conditions.
In summary, Clifton has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While burglary and arson rates have significantly improved, larceny-theft has emerged as a growing concern. The city's changing demographics and increasing urbanization appear to be influential factors in these trends. As Clifton continues to grow and develop, addressing the rise in larceny-theft while maintaining the positive trends in other property crime categories will be crucial for ensuring the safety and security of its residents.
