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Property Crime Trends in Cleveland, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cleveland, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 7 incidents in 2014 to just 1 in 2022, representing an 85.7% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 1,509 in 2010 to 1,802 in 2022, a 19.4% increase.
Burglary trends in the city show a general decline over the years. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which decreased to 1 in 2022. When adjusted for population, this represents a drop from 2.65 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.55 per 1,000 in 2022, a 79.2% reduction. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained relatively stable, consistently at 0.01% of the state total for most years with available data. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, the trend was similar across the state.
Larceny theft showed more variability. The highest number of incidents was 4 in 2011 and 2014, while some years, including 2022, reported zero incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 2.70 in 2014 and dropped to 0 by 2022. Interestingly, the city's contribution to state larceny theft statistics was consistently reported as 0.0%, indicating that these incidents had a minimal impact on statewide figures.
Motor vehicle theft occurrences were rare, with only one reported incident in 2017 and 2019. This translates to a rate of 0.66 per 1,000 residents in 2017 and 0.67 in 2019. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics was 0.01% in these years, suggesting that while infrequent, these incidents did register in the statewide context.
Arson cases were non-existent throughout the entire period, with zero incidents reported from 2010 to 2022. Consequently, there was no measurable impact on state arson statistics or rates per 1,000 residents.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,015 per square mile in 2010 to 1,212 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased. This suggests that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. Additionally, the median income rose from $77,260 in 2013 to $83,963 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This could indicate that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the low crime rates observed in recent years. Based on the decreasing trend, it's projected that the city may experience between 0 to 2 property crimes annually, maintaining its low contribution to state crime statistics.
In conclusion, Cleveland has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, despite population growth. The significant reduction in burglaries, coupled with low rates of larceny theft and motor vehicle theft, paints a picture of a community that has become increasingly safe. These trends, when considered alongside rising median incomes and increasing population density, suggest that the city has managed to foster a secure environment while experiencing economic and demographic growth. As we look towards 2029, the outlook for Cleveland's property crime rates appears optimistic, with the potential for sustained low crime levels.
