Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents increased from 86 in 2010 to a peak of 134 in 2017, before decreasing to 78 in 2022, representing a 9.3% overall decrease from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, peaking at 8.9 in 2017 and ending at 4.7 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.05% and 0.09%, suggesting that local factors may have influenced these trends more than statewide patterns.

Arson cases in the city have shown considerable variation. From 2 cases in 2010, the number rose to a peak of 24 in 2020, before dropping to no reported cases in 2022. This volatility is reflected in the city's contribution to state arson figures, which ranged from 0.03% to 0.29% over the period. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 1.5 in 2020, highlighting the sudden spike in that year.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $25,820 in 2013 to $37,304 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 690 to 359. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced crime rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and property crime rates. As the Hispanic population grew from 21% in 2013 to 30% in 2022, property crime rates decreased, indicating that demographic changes did not negatively impact crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, property crime rates in Clearlake are likely to continue their downward trajectory. Total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 20-25%, reaching around 270-290 incidents annually. Burglaries and larceny thefts are expected to see the most significant reductions, while motor vehicle theft rates may stabilize or show modest decreases.

In summary, Clearlake has made remarkable progress in reducing property crime rates across most categories, despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in burglary and larceny theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson have shown more variability. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes and changing demographics, suggest that the city is moving towards a safer environment for its residents. However, continued vigilance and community-based initiatives will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the coming years.