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Property Crime Trends in Clayton, Ohio: A Decade of Decline and Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Clayton, Ohio, located just north of Dayton, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 40%, from 205 to 123 incidents. During this same period, the population remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of 1.2% from 15,804 to 15,996 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 43 burglaries reported, which decreased to 15 in 2022, representing a 65.1% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.72 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.94 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years, starting at 0.06% in 2010, peaking at 0.13% in 2013, and settling at 0.07% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a decline, though less pronounced than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts dropped from 148 in 2010 to 86 in 2022, a 41.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 9.36 in 2010 to 5.38 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.06% and 0.12% throughout the period. This trend indicates a general improvement in property security within the community.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. The number of incidents increased from 14 in 2010 to 22 in 2022, a 57.1% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.89 in 2010 to 1.38 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022, with a peak of 0.18% in 2013. This upward trend in motor vehicle thefts contrasts with the overall decline in other property crimes and may warrant targeted prevention efforts.
Arson data for the city is limited, with several years reporting no incidents or no available data. The reported cases decreased from 3 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. Due to the sporadic nature of the data, it's challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $74,911 in 2013 to $77,633 in 2022, there was a general decline in property crimes, suggesting a possible inverse relationship between economic prosperity and property crime rates. Additionally, the gradual decrease in the percentage of owner-occupied housing from 82% in 2013 to 78% in 2022 coincided with the overall reduction in property crimes, particularly burglaries.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to remain low, possibly reaching a plateau. Larceny-theft incidents may see a slight uptick but are likely to remain below historical highs. Motor vehicle thefts could continue their upward trend, potentially becoming a more significant concern for local law enforcement.
In summary, Clayton has made considerable progress in reducing property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents an ongoing challenge. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to have influenced these crime trends. Moving forward, targeted strategies to address motor vehicle thefts while maintaining the positive trends in other property crime categories will be crucial for continuing to improve public safety in Clayton.
