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Property Crime Trends in Clayton, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Clayton, Alabama, is a small community that has experienced fluctuating property crime rates alongside population changes over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased from 6 to 17, representing a 183.33% increase. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 3,859 to 3,634, a 5.83% decline.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variations. In 2010, there was only 1 reported burglary, which increased to 22 in 2013, before declining to 5 in 2022. This represents a 400% increase from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.26 in 2010 to 1.38 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating a growing contribution to statewide burglary statistics despite the population decrease.
Larceny-theft incidents showed a more moderate increase over the same period. In 2010, there were 5 reported cases, which rose to 11 in 2022, a 120% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.30 in 2010 to 3.03 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft crimes grew from 0.01% to 0.02%, suggesting a slightly disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft remained relatively stable, with 0 reported cases in 2010 and 1 in 2022. This translates to an increase from 0 to 0.28 incidents per 1,000 people. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0% to 0.01%, indicating a minimal impact on statewide statistics.
Arson data is largely unavailable for the city, with only 2022 reporting 0 incidents. This lack of data prevents a comprehensive analysis of arson trends over time.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak negative relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 569 per square mile in 2010 to 536 in 2022, property crimes increased. There is also a potential correlation with median income, which rose from $20,508 in 2013 to $34,316 in 2022, coinciding with fluctuations in property crime rates. However, the relationship is not straightforward and may be influenced by other factors.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we might expect a continuation of the slight upward trend in overall property crimes. Based on the historical data, burglaries may stabilize around 5-7 incidents per year, larceny-theft could increase to 13-15 cases annually, and motor vehicle theft might remain at 1-2 incidents per year.
In summary, Clayton has experienced an overall increase in property crimes despite a slight population decrease. Burglary and larceny-theft have shown the most significant changes, with burglary rates fluctuating dramatically and larceny-theft showing a steady increase. These trends suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies, particularly in addressing theft-related offenses. The city's growing share of state crime statistics, albeit still small, indicates that local law enforcement efforts may need to be reevaluated to address the disproportionate increase in property crimes relative to population changes.
