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Property Crime Trends in Claremont, New Hampshire: A Decade of Decline and Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Claremont, a city in New Hampshire, has experienced notable shifts in property crime trends over the past decade, set against a backdrop of gradual population decline. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Claremont decreased significantly by 31.4%, from 433 incidents to 297. During this same period, the city's population decreased by 3.3%, from 13,467 to 13,018 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 54 burglary incidents, which decreased to 20 in 2022, representing a 63% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.01 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.54 per 1,000 in 2022. Claremont's share of state burglaries increased from 2.25% in 2010 to 3.61% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the decline has been less pronounced compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant decrease. In 2010, there were 364 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 255 in 2022, a 30% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 27.03 in 2010 to 19.59 in 2022. However, similar to burglary, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased slightly from 3.45% to 3.72% over this period, indicating that the city's improvement in this area was relatively in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in Claremont showed fluctuations but ultimately increased over the period. From 15 incidents in 2010, it rose to 22 in 2022, a 46.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.11 to 1.69. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose significantly from 3.8% to 4.1%, suggesting that this type of crime has become a growing concern relative to state averages.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but showed an increase. From 1 incident in 2010, it rose to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.07 to 0.23. More notably, Claremont's share of state arson cases increased dramatically from 0.58% to 4.76%, indicating that arson has become a more significant issue in the city compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $49,754 in 2013 to $54,844 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 437 to 297. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the slight decrease in the white population (from 97% in 2013 to 91% in 2022) and the overall reduction in property crimes, though this relationship requires careful interpretation.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029, Claremont may see a further 10-15% decrease in overall property crimes. However, motor vehicle theft and arson rates may continue to increase slightly, potentially by 5-10%, if current trends persist.
In conclusion, Claremont has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the city faces growing challenges with motor vehicle theft and arson, which have increased both in absolute numbers and as a share of state totals. These trends, coupled with demographic and economic changes, suggest a complex and evolving landscape of property crime in Claremont that will require continued attention and tailored strategies in the coming years.
